ning defeat down // (Steven Hayward).
How can you tell senior Democrats are aware they are being licked in midterms? They are trying to “pre-spin” the results to claim they “overperformed” expectations. Therefore, even if they lose both House and Senate, they shouldn’t be considered an extraordinary public rebuke to Democratic Party rule. Brandon can continue with business as usual.
Based on historical data, the leading political science models for mid-term elections, Gary Jacobson at UC San Diego, and Charles Tiene/Michael S. Lewis Beck at University of Virginia, suggest that Democrats should lose between 40 and 45 seats in Congress and 5 in the Senate. Holy moly!
There are reasons to believe that Republicans may not be able to reach those dazzling numbers. They already have 212 House seat, having outperformed in 2020. We are told that Republicans have “bad” Senate candidates. It is therefore not difficult to imagine a scenario in which Republicans only gain 20 House seats and maybe one net Senate seat. This would still be enough to control the Senate.
The Tien/Lewis Beck analysis concludes:
These point estimates of Democratic losses are not a rejection of the Democrats in Congress, although they are small. They do indicate that they are likely to lose control of both chambers.
Take John Sides from Vanderbilt, a “mainstream”, political scientist who is highly respected in the worlds of quantitative astrology and political science.
Complete Sides thread on “Why”.
In fact, I hope Democrats follow this line. It ensures that the 2024 election will see a bigger GOP win.
