leaf of the Day // (Scott Johnson).

In connection with the midterm elections, I have been searching for tea leaves to read. Interactive Polls’ Twitter feed links to the Wall Street Journal poll that reported here today in today’s newspaper. (The tweet links you to an accessible version of the story.

The poll was conducted jointly by Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, and John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster. I believe that they will not be partisan when they are commissioned by The Wall Street Journal. Or that they will combine the two.

This tweet highlights this tea leaf. “The GOP has seen an increase in support among many voter groups, including Latino voters, women, and especially white suburban women.” This group, which pollsters say makes up 20% of the electorate has shifted 26 percentage point away from Democrats since August’s Journal poll and now favors Republicans by 15 percentage points.

Anzalone is quoted in the Journal story:

Mr. Anzalone stated that the most worrying thing for Democrats is the fact that independent voters don’t trust the party to manage rising prices. Independent voters, regardless of which party is in power, “break against the party whenever you have economic diagnostics such as we’re seeing.” End of story, done.” He said, “Voters trust Republicans on this, right now. This is tough work for us.

It’s true, it’s interesting. Michael Ramirez summarized it in one eloquent image yesterday. I expect the worst, but I am always pleasantly surprised.

WSJ: Generic Congressional Ballot for Latino voters and white suburban ladies: GOP +15

That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 points towards the GOP from Augusthttps://t.co/GP8l5maNOE pic.twitter.com/bNoOWAE6th

InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 20,22