avily Hispanic Battleground Districts to Watch //
The American election landscape is changing and Latino voters could be one reason.
According to the Pew Research Center, Hispanic Americans have been the fastest-growing ethnic group in the country’s electorate since the 2018 midterm elections. This year, there are 34.5 million eligible Latino voters.
Hispanic voters tend to lean Democratic in the polls. However, there is a noticeable shift.
The Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, president and CEO of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference spoke out about the shift in Latino voters.
Rodriguez stated that there is a “very measurable, viable and sustainable, long-term change from the Hispanic electorate serving as a key constituency of Democratic Party to now emerging as an independent voting bloc that is conservative.”
He said that Latino voters are most concerned about “faith and family” and that Democrats who embrace policies like “late-term abortion literally say, “We don’t want Latinos within our party.”
According to Cesar Ybarra (Vice President of Policy at FreedomWorks), a political grassroots advocacy group, The Daily Signal, “Democrats are losing ground among Hispanics because the issues are wrong, and conservatives have capitalized upon this.”
According to data from the Pew Research Center, 80% of registered Latino voters believe that the economy is the most important issue in deciding who they will vote for. Pew also found that Latinos are concerned about education, violence, and health care.
Americano Media polling shows that “while Democrats hold a lead of 14 points on the generic ballot among Hispanics,” 71% [of the 1,200 registered Hispanic voters] respondents believe that the country’s heading in the wrong direction,” Ybarra said to The Daily Signal via email Tuesday.
The national polling shows that the top issues for Hispanic voters are the economy and crime. Visto Media founder GiancarloSopo told The Daily Signal Monday in an email that Giancarlo Sopo was a public relations strategist and founder. These priorities are consistent across all regions. However, in places like South Texas, voters are also concerned by the border crise. In Miami, U.S. foreign policies [toward] Latin America are invariably incorporated into congressional campaigns.
Sopo is a consultant to Cassy Garcia, South Texas Republican congressional candidate, and Monica De La Cruz. He said that “Hispanics priorities differ significantly depending on whether they consume mostly English or Spanish-language TV.” Latinos who read most of their news in Spanish tend to be more liberal than those who prefer English news sources.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump made progress with Hispanic voters. In 2020, Trump gained more ground, winning 32% of the Latino vote according to exit polling by The New York Times.
Three Hispanic districts in Texas, and three in Florida, are expected to play a significant role in the determining the control of Congress. Currently, Republicans hold 212 Congress seats and Democrats have 220. Three seats are vacant, two in Florida, one in Indiana.
Texas’ 15 and Congressional District
Michelle Vallejo, a Democratic candidate, will face off against Monica De La Cruz, a Republican candidate in South Texas’ newly drawn 15 th Congress District. Redistricting has made the district, which measures 250 miles in length, highly competitive and about 80% Hispanic.
I-Vt. Senator Bernie Sanders held a rally alongside Vallejo this weekend to encourage progressive voters in the district.
Sanders stated to the crowd, “The vote right there in this district could decide which party controls U.S. House of Representatives. And I think the choice it is clear.” “The choice is whether or not we give billionaires more tax breaks and cut Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid, education, and other programs, or whether we stand up to the working class. Michelle Vallejo is on our side.
Trump endorsed De La Cruz, calling her a “real Star” at a rally held in Robstown, South Texas in October.
Steve Shepard is Politico’s chief election correspondent. He says Texas’ 15 th Congress District is an example “Republicans’ surge at the Rio Grande Valley.” Vicente Gonzalez, a Democratic Representative, won the district by 21 percent in 2018, but that lead has shrunk to only 3 points in 2020.
Shepard believes that Republican De La Cruz will win, but FiveThirtyEight reports from a polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight that a recent poll by Bendixen & Amandi International places Vallejo & De La Cruz neck-and-neck, with each having an estimate 45% of the vote.
Texas’ 28 th Congress District
Republican Cassy Garcia is challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28 th District.
A large portion of South Texas, which is approximately 78% Hispanic and borders Mexico, makes up the border.
Cuellar is currently in his ninth term as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives. Cuellar is a moderate Democrat who opposes abortion and advocates for a secure frontier. He narrowly escaped Democratic primary challenges from the Left in 2020 and 2022.
Garcia was previously the deputy state director for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and was appointed in 2020 to be the White House Hispanic Prosperity Initiative commissioner.
Texas Republican Governor Gregg Abbott supported Garcia on Oct. 19, stating that Garcia is the “wife” of a Border Patrol agent and knows firsthand the effects of President Biden’s open border policies. Her proven track record in public service will allow her to deliver results for South Texas residents.
Politico predicts that Cuellar will narrowly beat Garcia.
Texas’ 34 th Congress District
Shepard, Politico’s chief election reporter, describes the race between Republican Rep. Mayra Flowers and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, Texas’ 34 th Congressional district as “hypercompetitive.”
Flores made history when she won the South Texas congressional seat, which had been held by Democrats for over 100 years, in a special election.
Flores’ victory is a direct reflection of Ronald Reagan’s message that “Hispanics can vote Republican.” They don’t know it yet,” Ybarra, FreedomWorks stated on “The Daily Signal Podcast” in June.
Ybarra stated that “Republicans have done a better job explaining the Republican Party platform for Hispanic voters.” “This is due to the horrible job that President Biden has done with the economy, and the congressional Democrats.”
Despite Flores’ victory in the previous district, she is running against an incumbent. Gonzalez is currently the representative for Texas’ 15 th Congress District. However, she is running in the 34 th District due to the state’s recent political map.
Gonzalez won the 2018 general election with over 60% of the vote.
FiveThirtyEight reports that polling data from RMG Research indicates a victory of 4-percentage points for Gonzalez.
Florida’s 9th Congressional district
The 9 th Congress District in Florida is centrally located and about 40% Hispanic. Scotty Moore, the Republican candidate, is taking on incumbent Democratic Rep. Darren Soto.
Soto was first elected in 2016 to represent Florida’s 9 th District. Soto’s Republican opponent is not a politician. Moore writes on his campaign website, that he worked for 20 years at a Christian nonprofit and decided to get involved with politics because of the “direction & condition of our amazing country concern me.”
Soto is expected to retain his seat. FiveThirtyEight polls show that Soto defeated Moore by 8 percentage points.
Florida’s 27 th Congress District
Florida’s 27 th Congress District is home to almost 70% Hispanics. It is located in the southern part, Miami-Dade County. In 2020, Republican Maria Elvira Salazar beat incumbent Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala with a margin of 3 percentage points.
In what is expected to be a close race, Salazar will now face Democratic state Senator Annette Taddeo.
Two Hispanic female candidates are running for votes in the heavily Cuban American district. Salazar is running on an antisocialism platform. She claims that the Left wants to implement socialism in the country. However, she promises to “preserve the freedoms that make this country one of the most extraordinary countries in the history.”
Taddeo stated in a recent campaign ad that “This election will decide if we remain beacons of freedom or become socialist dictatorships.” He called Salazar a “MAGA Republican,” who “supports government control over women’s health care decisions.”
Florida Politics reported that Salazar was leading Taddeo by 6 percent points in mid-October. Politico predicts Salazar winning the district by a narrow margin.
Florida’s 28 th Congress District
The new district of Florida’s 28 th District was created following the 2020 census. The district absorbed most Florida’s 26 th districts, currently represented by Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez.
Gimenez was elected in 2020 to Florida’s 26 th District. He is expected to defeat Robert Asencio (a retired police captain) in Florida’s southernmost district. Gimenez was the mayor of Miami-Dade County before being elected to Congress.
“Gimenez has a keen understanding of the changing politics in South Florida,” Politico’s Shepard wrote in his analysis. He was the mayor of Miami-Dade County and he endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016. Then he flipped to support Donald Trump in 2020 when he was going against the incumbent, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. It worked: Gimenez won GOP nomination and defeated Mucarsel Powell by 3 points.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling data projects that Gimenez will defeat Asencio with a margin of 10 percentage points.
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