e Issues Drive Voters To The Polls in Midterm Elections Conclude //

Voters are turning out in droves because of concerns about inflation and the economy.

Noah Weinrich, Heritage Action for America Communications Director, says that the economy and inflation are top issues for between 30% to 50% of voters after three rounds of polling.

Weinrich states, “And even for other voters who have a top concern, the economy remains in their top three priorities.”

He said that three other major concerns of voters are abortion, border security and crime.

Weinrich joins “The Daily Signal”, podcast to discuss the issues that are dominating the midterm elections, and the largest races to watch on Election Day.

Listen to the podcast below, or read the lightly edited transcript.

Virginia Allen: Today’s guest is Noah Weinrich, the director of communications for Heritage Action for America. Noah Weinrich, welcome to Heritage Action for America.

Noah Weinrich Thank You for Having Me.

Allen: Heritage Action is an independent sister organization to The Heritage Foundation. All of you are involved in political battles in different states. While everyone has their own opinions about the most important issues this Election Day, Heritage Action knows that you have all done polling to determine the issues driving voters to the polls. Tell us, what are voters thinking? What are their key issues?

Weinrich: Yeah, absolutely. So, we did polling throughout the year. This year, we did three rounds. We found that the issues are fairly consistent. Inflation and the economy have been the top issues. According to every poll we have done and every poll outside, the top issue is the economy and inflation. Even for those voters who have other concerns, the economy is their top three. That is why the economy will be the dominant factor in the election [Tuesday].

Depending on which poll you look at the other issues that are close behind are abortion and safety and security. … Mainstream media would like to claim that this is just about the economy and abortion. This is not true. Only a small percentage of voters consider abortion their top issue. Many of these voters are conservatives. According to the last poll, 17% ranked abortion as their top concern.

However, I believe that 18% to 19% ranked border security and crime as their top concern. This has been the main issue. The corporate media didn’t talk about crime and border security until the last month or so, even though that’s been a dominant theme in some states like Arizona and Texas, where border security has been a major issue, and Wisconsin, where criminality and public order have been a major issue.

These are all going to be major factors as voters head to polls. They aren’t necessarily thinking about [President Joe] Biden speaking about these abstract, so called threats to democracy. They are thinking about how they will be able to feed their families. How will I know if my neighborhood is safe tonight? Do I know that my border is secure? That fentanyl doesn’t cross the border; and that millions of people are being trafficked across it? As they head to the polls, that will be a bigger problem.

Allen: Let’s look at the breakdown between Republicans and Democrats. Let’s start with the issue of abortion. This is a topic that has been a major topic in the election on both the Republican and Democratic sides. Do Republicans find it more important than Democrats? Or vice versa.

Weinrich According to polls, it’s more important than for Republicans and Democrats-leaning Independents. The reason I believe this is because Republicans have the momentum in their favor. After Roe v. Wade was overturned by [Dobbs. v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization], states were able, for the first-time in 50 years to enact real protections for unborn children. In many of these states, Republicans are saying, “Great!” This is not their main concern. They are doing well in this regard. The economy is not doing well. They are concerned about the economy.

Many Democrats are now thinking, “Wow! For the first time in decades, we are losing.” This is very upsetting. I’m going vote on this.” They may not care as much about border security, because they’re conditioned to ignore it. They’ll think about abortion more than the economy, however, because many of them don’t care about the economy because they believe that Biden has it. He is handling it. It’s going be OK.” But they are worried about abortion because their side keeps losing. So, we see a 2-to-1 split between Democrats and pro-choicers who are more concerned about abortion than Republicans or pro-lifers.

Allen: What about immigration? Is there a similar divide between Republicans and Democrats on the issue of immigration?

Weinrich A similar split but not as strong. There are many Democrats who were concerned and many independents. It’s not as polarized than the abortion issue. There are more independents who care about immigration than true independents. It’s a fairly similar split, but it’s not as polarized.

I would say that crime and the economy are less polarized than crime. Surprisingly, Democrats and left-leaning Independents are concerned about the economy and crime. It’s so hard to deny. How can you deny the fact that you pay more for a gallon gas? How can you ignore the fact that your car was broken into last week on your street? This kind of thing is truly breaking down ideological lines.

Allen: It affects everyone. What about education? How does that poll work?

Weinrich It’s something that many voters are concerned about. It’s not the most important issue for most voters. For most voters, the top issue is how do I feed my family? How can I ensure that my neighborhood is safe? It’s likely to be in the top five for many voters, if not all voters. It’s not the number one issue. It’s not the No. 1 issue for most people, but it’s a lot more than that. 3 and No. 4. It plays more at a local level, because your local elected officials and state elected officials have a greater role in education than the federal government. Your senator shouldn’t be dictating funding policies for your local school districts. That’s the school board.

So, education will be a prominent topic in a lot of these national polls. Although education is not likely to be a top issue, pollsters will ask you, “What are your top issues?” It will be very different if you ask for governor, school board, or local representative.

Allen: Got it. This makes sense. There are some very important races in this election. Which ones will you be paying attention to tonight?

Weinrich That’s a great question. There are many races. It’s hard to count them all. The Senate will be the most closely monitored. It’s been breaking for Republicans in the last few weeks. It was a toss up before. It’s now likely to be Republican. However, that margin is still in question. It could be 51 to 54 seats or 55 if something unexpected happens. I’m going look at, I believe, the four to five true tossups, which all lean Republican at the moment – Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Again, the momentum is in favor of the Republicans for all of them. They are all likely to be Republican, or lean. You never know. All of these races are within the polling margins of error. We know that the polling underestimates Republicans. But we don’t know how much. In 2016 and previous races, Republicans were underestimated by 3 points. They were undervalued by 2.5 in 2018. They were underestimated by five in 2020. How large that margin is will affect how many seats we get. These races will be crucial.

It’s going be very interesting for [Republican candidate to governor] Kari lake in Arizona. She’s done a remarkable job and has achieved more than people expected. Tiffany Smiley in Washington has a chance of making it in this blue state where Patty Murray has won twice as many times [every six year] since 1992. If the Senate seat were to be flipped, it would be a huge victory for conservatives.

There are many House races in the country. There are some, like Monica De La Cruz Hernandez in Texas and Cassy Garcia in New Mexico. Yvette Herrell is also in New Hampshire. These are swing districts and a Republican victory would mean a massive wave in the House. We expect at least 20 seats to flip in the House. However, if some of those seats flip, it could be 40 or even 50 seats.

Allen: There are also interesting initiatives being voted upon on the ballots, particularly regarding abortion. Five states have an abortion-related item on their ballots. They’re asking residents to weigh in. Which ones are you really paying attention to?

Weinrich This is a great question. Unfortunately, I haven’t been following them as closely as you. I have been following the Michigan one. The Heritage Action Sentinel was the one who was shot while canvassing. She is one of our volunteers. She is an incredible woman. If you haven’t heard, she was canvassing to pass Prop 3 in Michigan. She was accosted by a stranger she was visiting. It’s a sad story and we’re seeing more of these stories across the country. One Florida senator Marco Rubio supporter was hurt while canvassing. That’s what brought it to my attention. I will be paying close attention to that one.

Allen: Yeah, absolutely. Yes, I will be covering the Michigan State Fair and just trying to see how things unfold today. Stay tuned for more coverage of Michigan. But Heritage Action, I know, has been trying to see how the future will unfold and to gain a sense for what the future holds. Let’s look at some hypothetical scenarios. Let’s suppose that Republicans win the Senate and the House. Given that Democrats control the Executive Branch, how realistic would it be for them to accomplish their goals?

Noah WeinrichYeah. That’s the million-dollar question and the fact that we won’t have a filibusterproof majority in Senate. The Democrats will still have the ability to filibuster there.

It will be difficult. The presidency is not yours, but elections are important. Because the Executive Branch is controlled and controlled by Biden, his Democratic staff, we won’t be able get as much done as we would like. In both the Senate and the House, oversight will be crucial. Particularly in the House, holding the Biden Administration accountable, uncovering truth about what’s going on in those administrative agencies, holding hearings and using the oversight powers of subpoenas and other things like that. This is going to be crucial.

I would be open to bipartisan compromise in a few areas. Perhaps something on Big Tech, the oversight of social media companies or antitrust reforms for Big Tech companies. The [National Defense Authorization Act] and government funding will need to be passed. So, the party in power will have the opportunity to make changes and tweaks to the bills that the president will have to sign. As you can see, Democrats are trying to include Draft our Daughters in the NDAA. Or they’ll pass large amounts of unaccountable Ukraine funding in government funding. Republicans won’t be able to stop this, frankly.

Republicans will have the chance to win some legislative victories there, but not as much as a comprehensive package that the president would need to sign off on. He’ll be able veto it. There are areas where Republicans and conservatives will both win. It’ll be building momentum for 2025 when I believe we will have a conservative President who will sign off on good legislation. Some of it will be building muscle memory and getting bills introduced or passed. But then, we’ll have an occasion in the next Congress, to actually move forward and get signed.

Allen

Weinrich I don’t want to even think about it. It will be much the same as what we have seen over the past two years. While conservatives have done a great job blocking stuff, they have not blocked all of it. The so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which actually increases inflation was passed. Last year, we blocked some things. We blocked S.1 (and H.R.4), their electoral power-grab act. We stopped court-packing, D.C. statehood, and all similar activities. It’ll be much more difficult than if Democrats retain control.

Allen: Please give us some tips for election-watching tonight. I know you’ll be watching every bit of the news. Do you have any tips for how to best enjoy tonight’s election coverage?

Weinrich So, Senate, we won’t know who will control the Senate on election night unless we have a serious Republican wave. New Hampshire has great election laws. It’s day-of only and in person. You’ll know the results quickly that night. They’re East Coast so you’ll know quickly the results for New Hampshire. It’s a small country. You’ll find out that on election night.

Georgia: What you need to know on election night. Georgia is likely to be in the Senate runoff. If [Republican nominee] Herschel Walk wins outright, and he clears 50% that’ll be huge. If New Hampshire or Georgia win outright, which you will know very early, that would mean 51 seats. Or, if you arrive later in the evening, if Georgia does not win outright, you can get Arizona if Arizona comes in… It could take Arizona a few days. We’ll see, unfortunately. They should be able count on election night. If Arizona has a large lead and most ballots have been counted, that will also mean 51.

Nevada will likely take longer. Pennsylvania will likely take longer because they have a heavily vote by-mail system. In Pennsylvania, they don’t even begin counting ballots until the morning before Election Day. This could take several days. There is currently a legal battle over whether undated mail-in ballots can be submitted after the election.

Unfortunately, it will take some time. Other than that, time zones will be huge. It’s going to be a late-night affair because a lot of the disputable races are out west. They’ll be late in Washington, Nevada, Arizona. It will take a while for some of these states with a lot of mail in ballots.

Get a lot of sleep the night before. Red Bulls are a good choice. Get some coffee. You can call it an early sleep, but if you wake up the next morning, you might see some new results.

Allen: Noah, we are so grateful for your time today. We are grateful that you helped us to understand this.

Weinrich: Yeah, absolutely. Thank you so much for having me.

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The Daily Signal published the post These Issues Drive Voters To Polls As Midterm Elections Conclude.