r last night // (Scott Johnson)
Here are a few comments on this fiasco. They range from my personal self-evaluation to national results and the local Minnesota scene. These are my thoughts in the order that they occur to me, with the results of a few races still uncertain.
* I was as pessimistic as I am every day, but I prefer to see my pessimism in the context of higher realism.
* I expected the worst, and hoped for better, but I didn’t know that the elections could have turned out so badly for Republicans.
* I regret that I served up “tea leaves”, optimistically, over the past week. I was deceived. Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group polls were the most misleading. They were not reliable indicators for what was to follow. Although I believe Cahaly was right in his mistakes, I think his recent record sets him apart from the rest. He has returned to the professional polling norm, or worse. I would love to know why.
* What happened with the red wave? It was buried in an unmarked grave. It all began and ended in Florida. It was a great night for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who enjoyed a great time romping with Charlie Crist, his opponent who has distinguished itself by losing statewide elections as a Republican and an independent. Andrew Stiles gives him credit in the Free Beacon column “Charlie Crist defends Historic Triple Crown Title.”
* I could be wrong, but I don’t believe Donald Trump is the solution to the problems facing the Republican Party.
* John Fetterman’s win in the Pennsylvania Senate race was the biggest disappointment of last night. Oz’s defeat was unavoidable. I thought it was a difficult task for him to present himself as a Pennsylvanian. I said at the time, “I don’t love thee, Doctor Oz.” My friend who worked on the Oz campaign was furious when I brought up the subject with him the week Oz won. But I wasn’t wrong. The endorsement of President Trump can be attributed to Oz’s success in Republican primary, a race he won with fewer than a thousand voters. See point 4.
* Fetterman is a massive fraud who lied to his purported personal doctor.
* Fetterman is a fighter for “everyone who has been knocked down.” He’s fighting to help you and me. Woo hoo!
* Republicans did not win any of the sleeper Senate races. They were not even close. Don Bolduc, Joe O’Dea and Tiffany Smiley were defeated by large margins in New Hampshire and Colorado.
* To raise J.D., it took the intervention of Cocaine Mitch for big bucks. Vance after the Ohio Republican Primary. But President Trump chose to use his rhetorical guns against Cocaine Mitch. Trump, I believe, kept his financial powder dry here in Ohio.
* If Adam Laxalt wins in Nevada, Ron Johnson wins in Wisconsin, and Blake Masters loses Arizona, I believe Herschel Walker would have to win a runoff against Raphael Warnock to ensure that Republicans can take a 51-49 majority of the Senate. Keep hope alive! I wonder what the odds of this?
* Republicans may win with a slim majority in Congress. It’s not a complete victory, but it’s far less than they expected and is beyond the Democrats’ wildest dreams. Kevin McCarthy, the prospective Speaker, made brief remarks to claim victory overnight. His remarks were notable for their dispirited nature.
* Each of the four Republican candidates for constitutional offices on a state basis fell to defeat in Minnesota. Governor Tim Walz easily defeated Dr. Scott Jensen. Even Attorney General Keith Ellison, who I consider the most unfit man for his office in the USA, managed to win a narrow victory over a decent opponent in a race that has not yet been called. My guess is that Democrats will have legislative majorities in the senate (where there was a one-vote minority) and the house. However, we are still waiting for final results in too many races.
* Minnesota Democrats had a significant financial advantage in the election. They now have a large budget surplus to use in the next legislative session. The Democrats have a strong base in the metro areas and a functioning party. The Republicans lack a party organization and have a smaller rural base.
* Walz represented a conservative, mostly rural area of Congress before running to be governor. He has given up any pretense of moderation in order to promote every jot of the current left-wing manias.
* You’ve probably heard it on the radio or television in Minnesota that Republicans are too extreme to govern Minnesota. Minnesota Democrats believe in abortion, which is a little too strongly considering that it is not an issue.
* A personal closing note. I try to write about the elections at least as much an analyst as a cheerleader. Despite my best efforts, I discovered that I was the easiest fool to fool. I tried to resist wishful thinking, and remember Churchill’s advice: “Facts are more important than dreams.”
NOTE: This has been slightly revised since I posted it originally with the intention of correcting the math on the current balance in Minnesota’s senate and the future balance in the United States Senate. This was the first thing I did after getting up at 3:00 in the morning. I wasn’t working on all cylinders.
