rstanding the Red Fizzle //
There was no red tide. There was no red tide. There was no red tide.
There was a fizzle.
The 2022 midterm election foundations would have suggested a ringing Republican win: An unpopular president from the opposing party and deep public dissatisfaction with the economy. Unified Democratic control in Congress. A radical social policy that is out of step with most Americans. According to polls, Republicans were cutting deep into Democratic constituencies. This included Hispanic and Black voting blocs.
As of Wednesday morning, Republicans, widely expected to win historic margins at the House of Representatives, and to retake the United States Senate were coming up short almost everywhere. They will likely win the House, but only by a narrow margin, after an extremely weak showing that may land them with a majority just north of 220 seats. They are unlikely to win the Senate, as the deciding vote will likely be via a runoff in the Georgia Senate race featuring Herschel Walker, a highly vulnerable and troubled candidate.
What happened then?
The result was that Republicans chose bad candidates in many states and districts across the country. The Republican leadership believed that the fundamentals were sufficient to sweep them to victory. However, they failed to intervene in these primaries in the way necessary to ensure that there were viable general election candidates.
They resigned largely because they were afraid of former President Donald Trump. Trump personally intervened in several cases in the primaries and endorsed candidates almost entirely on the basis that they were sufficiently sycophantic about the 2020 election.
Those candidates lost.
Trump then ripped them apart. For example, take Don Bolduc in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a toss up state. Late polls suggested that Bolduc might win the race despite his many oddities and strong support of Trump’s 2020 election fraud claims. He lost by two-digits. Trump immediately took to Truth Social to let everyone know that Bolduc was worthy of it.
Don Bolduc was a nice man, but tonight he lost when he renounced, after his big primary win and his longstanding stance against Election Fraud in 2020 Presidential Primary. He would have won easily if he had stayed strong and true. Lessons Learned!! !
He also took the opportunity to release a statement celebrating a Democrat’s win in Colorado’s Senate seat. This was a direct attack on Republican Joe O’Dea who refused to accept Trump’s 2020 election obsession. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
In the 2022 election cycle, the Republican Party had only one job: to provide some form of responsible leadership. They lost where they failed to do so.
They won where they did.
Governor of Florida is Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis was the Florida governor. He reopened the state after COVID-19. He made sure children could go to school, managed Hurricane Ian, and won an overwhelming victory. His margin of victory of 0.4%, 30,000 votes, grew to 1.5 million votes, nearly 20 points, and brought the entire Florida GOP along.
Four House seats were won by Republicans; Marco Rubio beat Val Demings in Senate by more than 16 points. He also won the Hispanic vote, winning even historic blue Miami-Dade County.
Trump was also taking shots at Ron DeSanctimonious.
Governor Georgia was defeated by Stacey Abrams, Democratic darling. Stacey Abrams was defeated by Brian Kemp, the Democratic darling. This was despite Trump’s personal attempts at defeat Kemp in his primary. Georgians trust Kemp; he won.
Republicans have a silver lining. Republicans saved Democrats who should have been taught by voters. This means that they will continue to double down on their incompetence and pusillanimity. President Joe Biden is, except for actual incapacity and extreme incompetence, the prohibitive 2024 Democratic nominee. The fundamentals will continue to be against Democrats as they pursue a woker-woker agenda.
Republicans will have another chance to eat the apple, but only if they are serious. The days of frivolity are gone. The laws of political gravity are in effect. Nominate sober, competent candidates capable of leading and earning the trust of Americans. Pick your culture war battles, and strike them hard. Make it difficult to vote for Democrats, but easy to vote in your favor.
This is not difficult stuff. If the Republican leadership refuses to see the obvious, 2022 will be just the beginning.
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Understanding the Red Fizzle was first published on The Daily Signal.
