Trump be a Factor in 2024 // (John Hinderaker)

2024 is still a long way away, and many things could happen between now and then. One thing is certain: Donald Trump may have been indicted, and may have served a sentence. But, even ignoring all the drama, I have seen commentators say that Trump is hard to beat. Even if Trump draws only 35% of the vote during the primaries, he could still win them, even if the remainder of the vote is split in multiple ways. His momentum could be unstoppable if he has to choose from fewer opponents.

Although it is possible, I doubt it will be possible. The Iowa caucuses are currently in the first phase. The New York Post reports a survey of Iowa caucus-goers:

According to a new survey, Iowa Republicans are shifting away from former President Donald Trump to support rising star Ron DeSantis.

Neighborhood Research and Media released a poll Monday showing that 32% of likely caucus-goers would choose the 44-year old Florida governor as their first choice. Another 30% stated that the former president, 76 years old, would be their top choice.

This is not a bad trend, but it is close.

This result represents a 23-point swing between June, when Trump led DeSantis 38% to 17%, and a 46 percent swing from November last year, when Trump led 56% to 12.

“With support only half of what it was one year ago, at a time when DeSantis has nearly tripled his vote, Trump becomes a serious underdog in this race,” Rick Shaftan from Neighborhood Research and Media wrote in an analysis.

It is notable, too, that while 30% of respondents said they were undecided, only 3% of other candidates received responses.

Even if Trump is not indicted, I believe the trend towards DeSantis and other Democrats will continue for the next year. It is possible that he could be an ineffective force by the time the 2024 nomination process starts in earnest.