Keep in mind the” conventional” section. Elections are extremely about turning out your base rather than just swaying the electorate. Dark voter turnout is a parasitic reliance for the Democrats. especially as Hispanic and Asian voters show more erratic behavior. The fact that black men vote in smaller numbers and the true Democrat base is the” church lady” electorate should be kept in mind, despite some Republicans’ claims to the contrary. older dark females. Socially catastrophic is a threat to the Republican black electorate. or it should be, at the very least. And the situation is bleak. Mr. Biden has a wide range of demographic and cultural weaknesses when it comes to non-white voters, with Black voters having 72-11 and Spanish registrants having 47-35. Although there isn’t a large enough sample of Asian voters to report, Mr. Biden is defeated by non-white voters — whether Asian, Native American, multiracial, or otherwise — by just 40 – 39. Mr. Biden’s tallies in all three instances are significantly lower than they were in the previous election. Those are also the majority, but they are getting weaker. Dems must receive at least three-quarters of the black vote in order to win, and the Spanish vote shouldn’t be this nearby. Biden is within a margin of error of losing the majority of non-white voters in the general election. Although the numbers are terrible, 2022 also had bad numbers. The Dems concentrated a lot of effort on producing the fresh emerging base of premium young white voters with college degrees. Republicans have made significant gains among working-class minority voters, but Democrats have more than made up for it by devouring affluent and affluent metropolitan light voters. In 2022, that Kung Fu maneuver performed fairly effectively. And the Democrats’ knowledge of abortion, global warming, and LGBTQ issues has grown even more. The drift is only made worse by this, which is a problem. The bleeding among your current base gets worse the more you court a unique group of voters. Democrats and Republicans alike are dealing with this. Minority voters are also leaving because they believe the Democrats have turned into a awoke hipster party, as have many affluent, more liberal Republicans who dislike the party’s new tone. Given that Mr. Biden loses support from less affluent nonwhite voters and those without degrees, the Times / Siena data point to the emergence of an education gap that is fairly obvious among voters who are not white. Overall, he maintains a 61 – 23 lead among college graduates who are not white, as opposed to just 49 – 31 leads among those who have not earned their four-year degree. And it’s clear that the light working-class vote boarded a boat and sailed off. Due to their high voter turnout and wealth, the pale college electorate is a fairly safe bet. However, in midterm elections, those factors are more powerful. Because they benefited from their base, Republicans used to perform better in midterm elections than Democrats. Dems may then outperform Republicans in the midterms, but what happens if the White House is up for election? Biden might be up against an election that cannot be won through traditional methods. Elections, however, are evolving. 2020 was a very unusual election. Indictments and trials of a potential opposition party nominee are now having an impact on 2024. You can bet that this isn’t the only unusual trick used. There are also a ton of opportunities for the Dems to transform the battlefield itself from election rules to trials, even though they may be out of Moneyball games they can play with the electorate. They continue to dangle in front of us in relation to that coup under the 14th amendment. The election will be conducted more tastefully the more conventionally unwinnable it becomes.
Remember the “conventional”. Elections aren’t just about swaying your electorate anymore, but also about turning out your base. The Dems are dependent on the turnout of black voters. Latino and Asian voters are becoming more unpredictable. While Republicans tout gains among black men it is important to remember that they are a small group and the real Democrat base is ‘church ladies’. Older black women. A threat to the Dem black voter base is politically fatal. Or it should be. Mr. Biden’s weakness is widespread among nonwhite voters, spanning nearly every demographic group and racial category, including a 72-11 advantage among Black voters and an 47-35 advantage among Hispanic voters. The sample size of Asian voters was not large enough to report. However, nonwhite voters that aren’t Black, Hispanic, Native American, or multiracial, back Mr. Biden with a 40-39 margin. In all three cases Mr. Biden’s numbers are far below his standing from the last election. They are still majorities but they are becoming increasingly weaker. Dems do not win when they score less than three quarters of the black votes and the Hispanic vote shouldn’t be this close. Biden is within an error margin of losing the mass non-white vote. These are bad numbers, and they were bad in 2022 as well. The Dems focused heavily on attracting a new base of young, educated white voters. Republicans have made important gains among minority working-class voters, but Democrats more than compensated by grabbing suburban and upscale white voters. The Democrats have also learned a lot about abortion, global climate change and LGBTQ issues. The more you try to court new voters, the more your current base will suffer. Both Republicans and Democrats experience this. The Times/Siena data shows that there is a clear education gap between nonwhite voters. Mr. Biden loses support among those who are less affluent and without a college degree. Overall, he maintains a 61 to 23 lead among nonwhite graduates of four-year colleges, compared to a 49-31 advantage among those without. These elements are more powerful in midterm elections. Republicans used to perform better in midterm elections than Democrats, because they leveraged their base. Biden may face an election that he cannot win by conventional means. But elections are becoming more unconventional. 2020 was an incredibly unconventional election. Indictments and trials against a possible candidate for the opposition party are already shaping 2024. You can bet this is not the only unconventional move here. The Dems are running out of Moneyball tricks they can use to manipulate the electorate. But there are still many possibilities to reshape battlespaces, from election rules to trial procedures.
