How bad do things look for Democrats with the midterms just three weeks away? Even Morning Joe had to admit Thursday that the Dems were in dire straits. The show’s first half-hour featured a series of disasters for Democrats. It started with Willie Geist pointing out that the On Politics editor at the New York Times [!] is seeing a coming “redwave,” with “all my indicators on my political dashboard blinking in the direction of Republicans.”
Christina Greer, a Fordham University professor, said that crime and inflation are fictitious, with the former having a racist component.
Perhaps the most disappointing news for Democrats was that Joe Scarborough, Geist and Elise Jordan agreed that abortion has become a non-issue, and that voters have moved on to other issues.
Jordan spoke about the focus groups she conducted in Pennsylvania with a variety demographic groups. She shared a brief clip with a group from Bucks County, a swingy Philadelphia suburb. When asked if anyone would vote on the views of a candidate on abortion, none of them responded. However, one woman said that she would vote if a candidate supported banning abortion without exceptions.
Greer refused to give up and tried to make fun of those who make crime a major issue: “[W]e are aware that the fears about crime are just kinda latent subtexts that have had a racialized past in this country. So, Greer walked voters through the perceptions of crime and where it actually is. Joe Biden has made the economy stronger.
Good luck with that, Democrats! Telling voters worried about crime that they are a bunch racists who see crime where it might not exist is a good idea.
Jordan’s focus groups disprove Greer’s theory that crime is “racialized”.
Jordan reported:
They say crime is rising in Bucks County. We also heard this from Philadelphia’s African-American voters. They described the daily crime wave they are experiencing and how it has been increasing over the past 10 years.
Professor Greer says that urban black voters are more concerned about crime than the racists in the suburbs.
Jordan was not deterred. “[Y]ou really get to the sense that [crime] will be the issue of 2022 midterms.”
Greer also dismissed inflation and suggested that people should realize they aren’t really struggling and that the economy is thriving.
There is reality and perception. Joe Biden has done everything he could to stop inflation and make sure gas prices drop, but there is still a perception that everything costs more. There is a perception that people are struggling.
Scarborough also contributed, saying he was hearing personal stories about crime from Democrats, including from Mika Brzezinski’s wife, who received a call from someone “connected to a powerful Democrat” whose house had been broken into.
Morning Joe reports that Republicans are losing momentum in the midterms, with crime the most important issue for voters. This report was sponsored by Subway, Liberty Mutual, Abbott (maker of Qulipta), and Liberty Mutual.
Here’s the transcript. It also includes rare acknowledgments of reality on MSNBC. To read the transcript, click “expand”.
MSNBC’s Morning Joe
10/20/22
6:15 am EDT
WILLIE GEIST – Blake Hounshell is the editor of On Politics. This newsletter is published by The New York Times. He has a new analysis about the midterm elections. Blake says in part, “Here’s the thing with election. They usually fall in one direction when they break. All the indicators on my political dashboard at the moment are blinking red,” meaning they are pointing towards Republicans. He continued, “First there’s inflation. It hasn’t disappeared as the Biden administration had hoped… Then there’s crime, which has quickly moved up the ladder among issues that matter to voters. Democrats bet heavily that anger at the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade will drive voters away from Republican Party. This strategy by Democrats might have been a smart one in an otherwise difficult year for the party. It has come at a price: All those abortion ads have taken resources from whacking Republicans who oppose the policies Democrats passed this year… Finally, there’s also the historical pattern for midterm elections which tend to be referendums about the party in power.
(….)
6:16 a.m. Eastern
GEIST: Joe. We’re going to get Elise and her focus groups out of Pennsylvania that also illustrate this point. Perhaps abortion, although it was hot this summer and still very important to some voters in Pennsylvania, might not be as persuasive as Democrats thought.
JOE SCARBOROUGH : Yes, you’re hearing it everywhere. It is actually quite fascinating, especially the last few days. Democratic consultants from Oregon to New York State are in a near-serious state of panic. Yesterday, in New York State, we heard about a poll that showed that Kathy Hochul, the governor, is in serious trouble. This is causing congressional candidates in close races in New York to worry that it’s actually dragging them down. It’s what we heard in Wisconsin. Consultants say that Ron Johnson is achieving dramatic results right now. Pennsylvania is getting really tight. The Republicans are happy about Georgia. Feel good about Ohio. Feel good about Ohio’s many races.
(….)
6:18 a.m. Eastern
CHRISTINA GRADER: Democrats must ensure that they can both walk and chew gum, even though we know that Republicans will blame inflation. We know that their fears of crime are just latent sub-texts. This is because of the country’s racialized history. So, we walk voters through the perceptions of crime and where it actually is. Joe Biden has made the economy stronger.
(….)
6:21 a.m. Eastern
GREER: Sometimes we have two things at once. There is the reality and there is the perception. Joe Biden has done everything he could to stop inflation and make sure gas prices drop, but there is still a perception that everything costs more. People are perceived as struggling every day.
(….)
6:22 a.m. Eastern
WILLIE GEIST This is it. This is the reason we’re running through the autumn on it, and it has helped many people in many places. You went to Pennsylvania to talk to swing voters about this topic.
ELISE JORDAN : It was very interesting. In fact, we interviewed four groups of Pennsylvanian electorate. We began in Philadelphia. We spoke with urban African-American voters in Philadelphia. We spoke with some swing voters from Bucks County. This is a competitive suburb. We then went to Pittsburgh to speak to swing voters and Trump supporters. There was a lot to be said about abortion from all these groups. But I want to focus on this one. This is what happened when we asked Bucks County swing voters if they would vote based upon abortion. Let’s see that.
JORDAN: Will you vote based on the views of a politician on abortion?
VOTER: No.
VOTER: Strictly, no.
(….)
6:24 a.m. Eastern
GEIST: This is Bucks County. These are the swing voters that decide the state’s presidential election. What was their thoughts when you spoke to them? They are very concerned about abortion, but they may be more concerned with other issues.
JORDAN: There is a lot of passion for abortion, but they are also upset about crime. They say crime is increasing in Bucks County. We also heard this from Philadelphia’s African-American voters. They described the daily crime wave they are experiencing and how it has increased over the past 10 years.
(….)
6:24 a.m. Eastern
GEIST: Joe, it was so interesting that you were referring to the governor’s race in New York. If you look at the polling, you will see that Lee Zeldin has narrowed the gap.
SCARBOROUGH: Yep.
GEIST: Governor Hochul still holds a lead. In the Quinnipiac poll, crime was the number one issue. This is an amazing result.
(….)
6:25 a.m. Eastern
SCARBOROUGH – Elise, it’s fascinating that you talk on crime. In 2020, Republicans ran on a slogan defund the police. Despite the fact that every Democratic leader that I had on this platform said that they supported defunding police. Jim Clyburn, for example, would say that we need reform but that we should actually fund the police more. It’s people of colour that are more often the victims of crime and Reverend Sharpton always stated it. But I will tell ya, the last week was about knocking on doors to get anecdotal evidence. It always came up that people are thinking about it when they vote. I have heard from Democrat after Democrat about their work, whether they were in Washington, New York, or elsewhere in the country. They aren’t saying, “Hey, let’s talk about politics.” They are all talking about crime. Hey, did you know there was a shooting at such and such?
Yesterday Mika received a call from Washington, connecting her with a powerful Democrat. Her house was broken into. It was all — you know, it was — it was just bizarre. Every day I hear a new story. People aren’t connecting crime to the election when they talk about it. They just say, “My God!” It’s getting really bad. The irony here is that in 2020, Republicans had this vapid slogan: defund the police – that weirdos, freaks, and a few city councils tried to implement into law but national Democrats didn’t. This year could be the year when crime actually has an impact, especially in places such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Because of what’s happening in Philadelphia and how it’s — and New York state, too.
JORDAN: Joe, before I sat down to discuss the election in Philadelphia, I took a look at Philly’s crime statistics over the past year. Because I know that certain politicians sometimes use crime as a way to get elected, I have a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to the American carnage era. These statistics are quite troubling. Then, you get the feeling that this is the issue for the 2022 midterms when you hear directly from voters of all stripes and political persuasions.
