vada update // (Scott Johnson)
I have been following Jon Ralston’s postelection tweet updates on the outstanding votes in Nevada’s Senate race. In my morning after comments on midterms, Blake Masters would lose in Arizona. I hoped that Adam Laxalt would win it in Nevada. Ralston is hostile towards Laxalt and is supporting incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. However, he is an expert in Nevada politics. You can take his analysis as it is.
For example, if her margin drops from 65-30 to 30-30, she would still be in decisively.
If it’s 60-35, the same.
If it’s 55-30, the same.
If it’s 55-35, the same.
She wins in all of those models.
Get ready to get up.
Good night to everyone. Tomorrow, more math!
Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports November 10, 2022
Below are the most recent comments Laxalt posted on Twitter.
Last night went exactly like we expected. We added 3K rurals, and more are on the way. She also added Clark County mail. We expect the remainder of the mail universe to fall below the percentage she needs. There has been no change in status.
— Adam Paul Laxalt, @AdamLaxalt November 10, 2022
If Masters and Laxalt lose, the Georgia runoff gives Democrats the chance to increase their Senate margin to 51-49. They would still be in control, regardless of the outcome. It would only allow Republicans to keep the Senate’s debilitating status quo.
