Hitchhiker’s Guide to McCarthy’s bumpy journey to the speaker’s room // House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), is now in his second day of trying for votes to become Speaker. A few things to be aware of: The House Republican Conference will host a “candidate forum”, which will take place early next week. Watch out for anyone announcing a run against McCarthy. It is worth noting that there is a highly contested race for whip between Reps. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Drew Ferguson (R-Ga). Also, watch a race to be the NRCC Chair. Republicans will hold their leadership elections in the middle of next week. When the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, the full House will vote to elect a speaker. The House cannot do anything until it elects a Speaker. The winner candidate must win the support of a majority of the House. CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS RECKON WITH DISAPPOINTING ELECTION RESULTS: ‘KNIVES ARE OUT,’ SOURCE SAYS It’s all about the math. This is why McCarthy faces a difficult task to get a narrow majority. McCarthy would need 218 votes if the House is fully formed at 435. McCarthy can’t win if he doesn’t get 216 votes, but the Democratic candidate gets 215 votes and someone else gets four. This is not an absolute majority. Only three speakers have won a race that had less than 218 votes since 1990. The reason is that the House as it was constituted on its opening day wasn’t at the full population (435 members). In 1997, the House elected Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), as Speaker. He received 216 votes. In 2015, the House elected John Boehner (R-Ohio), as former Speaker. With 216 votes, the House elected Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as Speaker in 2021. To get its vote, McCarthy will have to make a deal with House Freedom Caucus . The Freedom Caucus wants to control what bills are brought to the floor, which committee assignments it assigns and any commitments to reducing spending or tackling investigations. The Freedom Caucus wants to reintroduce the parliamentary gambit called the “motion to vacate chair.” This provision would allow any member to request a new vote for speaker at any time during the Congress. This could be used to threaten McCarthy: Do what is asked or face the consequences. What happens if McCarthy isn’t a majority? It votes for speaker again and again. Since 1923, when members elected Frederick Gillett (R-Mass), Speaker of the House, no vote for House speaker has been subject to a second round. Gillett and no other candidate were able to secure the majority. Gillett was challenged by Rep. Henry Cooper, R.Wis. Cooper prevented Gillett from gaining access to the speaker’s seat until the Massachusetts Republican agreed that some procedures would be modified in the House. Gillett won with 215 votes from a House that cast 414 ballots. This is an absolute majority. The House voted dozens of times until finally electing Speaker Howell Cobb (D-Ga). No candidate could win a majority on every ballot. The House finally gave Cobb a lift. The House passed a resolution stating that the House could elect its speaker based upon a plurality (or the most votes). Cobb won the 63rd ballot with 102 to 100 votes. The House then voted to ratify Cobb’s appointment as speaker. The House ratified Cobb with a simple majority. Nathaniel Bank (D-Mass.), House Speaker, faced a similar problem back in 1856. Over a two-month period, the House voted 129 more times than any candidate could garner an outright majority. The House also approved a resolution that would allow it to elect a speaker by simple majority. Finally, Banks won the plurality vote on 133rd ballot 103-100. The House followed the Cobb model and conducted a separate vote in order to ratify Banks’ appointment as speaker. REPUBLICANS POINTING FINGERS, AFTER WEAK M RESULTS. DIRECTION of PARTY IN THE QUESTION: “SOMETHING WAS OFF” Here’s the problem McCarthy faced in 2015: Republicans didn’t see Boehner to be terribly conservative. They felt the exact same about McCarthy. So Republicans searched for an excuse to leapfrog McCarthy and settled on Paul Ryan, R.-Wis. In a perfect world, the Freedom Caucus might choose Rep. Jim Jordan, R.Ohio, to be their majority leader. However, such a scenario is not yet possible. Fox McCarthy should host a press conference to promise all the specific bills and initiatives that he will launch if he is elected speaker, according to one source. However, McCarthy’s inability to do so indicates that negotiations are ongoing. McCarthy may not be ready to commit to certain things. McCarthy is facing a number of “political arsonists” within the Freedom Caucus. They won’t support any legislation. They are there to set things ablaze. McCarthy faces a difficult road ahead. Even if he is elected speaker, the question on Capitol Hill is for how long?